ANALYSIS

Boys Teams - Division 1

The Palisade’s boys posted the fastest team-time at Prelims this past Saturday but in our hypothetical race (see team rankings by division) would have lost in points to El Camino Real. Not to worry, the boys (like their girls) were well off their Pierce course PR’s across the board and will likely deliver a more typical performance at Finals. Max Fields and Jose Seville are the Dolphin’s top 2 runners and have a very good chance of placing 1st and 2nd at City Finals. Palisade’s 3rd-5th runners have been unpredictable all year but Alec Schmitt has a history of delivering in the big races and Noah Wexler isn’t far off his times from ‘19 when he ran a 16:06 at City Finals. If these guys deliver and David Tobin shows some of his early-season abilities the Palisade’s boys will be tough to beat.

El Camino Real is one runner away from taking the City title. Their top 4 runners have continued to improve impressively. Austin Ledgerwood will be shooting for an individual title and their 2nd-4th runners have all run under 16:30 at Pierce. Look for Max Liberman, Mateo Glass, and Isaac Torres to beat 16:20 on Saturday and at least one of these runners to be under 16:10. But they need a 5th runner who can break 17:00 minutes to win at Finals and so far that hasn’t happened.

The Granada Hills boys have been a bit of an enigma of late. Through mid-Octover they were running well and keeping pace if not beating ECR. But in the last several races they’ve looked flat and performances have been variable. Juan Alcala has been their top runner at Pierce while Pablo Abrego has posted the best time this year for the Highlanders back in September at Cool Breeze. These two will need to PR Saturday and Alexander Mendoza will need to get back to where he was just a month ago for the Highlanders to make a run at State. Reece Robles has been a top performer for Granada this year but did not run Prelims; he will be sorely missed if he doesn’t run at finals!

BOYS INDIVIDUALS - DIVISION 1

For the period 2010-2019 it was common for 10 boys to break 16 minutes at City Finals. This year, for a variety of reasons, probably most significantly COVID, we’re predicting 5 boys break 16 minutes.

Palisade’s Max Fields has been the dominant City runner all year, posting the fastest City times in every race he’s run. He was our pre-season favorite for division 1 individual champion and that ranking holds today just days prior to the big race. His prelim performance, though the 2nd best time on Pierce this year, was not his best effort. For the City Final race we’re predicting a sub 15:30 performance which for a Sophomore would rank him with City greats such as Justin Hazell and Brent Smith. Note: the last time a sophomore won the division 1 boys City title was in 1997 - Belmont great Humberto Vargas.

Austin Ledgerwood (El Camino Real) appeared to be having a typical season until his break-out 15:48.0 performance at Mt. Sac (top times at Mt. Sac tend to be a fairly accurate marker for City Finals performances). Since then he’s dropped his Pierce times by over 30 seconds and in the Prelims ran a conservative race to place 1st in the division 1-heat 1 contest. The best is yet to come (in our opinion) and so we’re predicting a sub-15:50 performance at City Finals and a 2nd place finish.

Jose Sevilla (Palisades) is a deceptively capable runner , a fierce competitor, and one who finishes extremely well. He has constantly ranked as Palisades #2 runner and the City’s #2 as well. And unlike other years when his training was inconsistent, this year he had a solid summer program and an injury-free season. Of all the runners in our ranking Jose is the one who could provide the biggest surprise. On the right day he could win it all. He’s definitely one of our candidates for a sub-16 performance.

Alec Schmitt (Palisades) - As a freshman in 2018 Alec ran a 16:15:16 to take 17th place in the Division 1 championship race. For perspective, eleven runners went under 16 minutes in that race. So this kid is talented! But he doesn’t always come into the XC season in top shape and therefor his best races tend to be later in the season and specifically at City Finals. Alec’s struggled getting under 16:10.0 at Pierce but his 16:10.6 at League Finals 2 weeks ago indicates he’s on the threshold and we’re predicting a sub-16 performance at City Finals and a top-5 finish.

Max Liberman (ECR) - Much like Jose Seville, Max has been off everyone’s radar. He hasn’t had any big races so far this year just steady improvements. His Prelim race was our indication of a runner who’s ready for a big breakthrough. He ran a leisurely 16:26.0, in trainers! Max is a big time finisher and that’s a strategy that works particularly well on Pierce. He’ll need to get out faster on Saturday but with his downhill capabilities and finishing speed a sub-16 minute is within reach as is a top-5 finish.

Other notable runners in Division 1 . . .

Luis Sandoval (San Pedro) was one of the most promising under-classman coming out of the 2019 season Luis is just starting to return to form. He’s actually ran a better time this year in Prelims so look-out, he could be ready to drop a very surprising time at City Finals.

James Lopez (Cleveland) was ruling the valley in September but he’s been setback by injuries since then and his prognosis for City Finals is unknown. If he runs, and he’s healthy, James is definitely a to-5 threat.

The Granada Quatro - Juan Alcala, Pablo Abrego, Alexander Medndoza & Reese Robles - These 4 have exchanged places through-out this season and have all shown the potential to post very good times. Chances are at least one of these boys will hit on Saturday. If all 4 run to their capability you can disregard the team rankings completely!

Finlay Robertson (Marshall) is another 2019 alumni that ran a 6:14.3 at Pierce as a Sophomore. He’s definitely in good form now and has the ability so look for him to deliver a PR on his final run at Pierce.