ANALYSIS

Girls Teams - Division 1

Contrary to our theory that the top teams hold back at Prelims, the Granada Hills girls top 5 runners all posted big PR’s last Saturday. Isabel Castagnola led the top-ranked team with the top girl’s time at Pierce this year. Isabel has improved every time she’s run the Pierce course so we’re looking for a sub-19:00 performance on her final run at Pierce at City Finals. FIONA LI, who had been running JV most of the season, ran a phenomenal 20:10.9 in Prelims; more than a minute better than her previous best at Pierce. Granada ran Prelims without 2 of their top runners - Sofia Abrego and Zaida Velazquez - we assume they’ll both be running at Finals. This team looks to be peaking perfectly.

The Palisades girls team-time at Prelims was almost 4 minutes off of their League Final time a week earlier. Mollie Wittenberg has led the team all year and had the 4th best DI time at Prelims. Just a guess but based on the team’s performance at Prelims Mollie and her teammates weren’t running on fresh legs. Look for the Palisades girls to deliver on Saturday.

Garfield’s girls ran Pierce for the first time this year and posted the 4th-best team time. Led by sisters Kelia and Sophia Naranjo-Champion who placed 2nd and 3rd in their heat they are definitely a team to watch though they don’t quite have the depth to break into the top 2 in division 1 this year.

Girls Individuals - Division 1

In a good year not so long ago ten girls in Division 1 would break 19 minutes at the City Championships. COVID has put a damper on such expectations in 2021 but we still expect a handful of girls to post times under 19. And if we’re really lucky, maybe even get a runner under 18 minutes.

The prohibitive favorite for the individual title is Granada Hill’s Isabel Castagnola. Except for her 1st race this season, she has posted the fastest City time in every race she’s run in. And on the Pierce course she’s improved her time by almost 2 minutes in just this year. In terms of the City Final, she looks to be the only girl with a chance to break 18 minutes which will be more than enough to win the race.

Isabel’s teammates should provide some familiar company on the winner’s podium. Jocelyn Pacheco and Meztli Valequez are ranked 2nd and 3rd in Division 1 and like Isabel have shown consistent improvement throughout this year and in particular on the Pierce course. We count these 2 girls as part of the group of 5 girls that should break 19 minutes at City Finals. If they can do that Granada should get a 1-3 sweep in the Division 1 individual race.

There are several runners that will challenge the Granada girls for that 2nd place finish. On top of that list is Kennedy’s Frieda Cedilla. Frieda ran a conservative race at Prelims but her win in the combined League Final race a week earlier was truly inspired. In the final mile where most runners are hanging on for dear life she pulled away from a stellar field and finished with the top time and fastest last mile on the day. If she’s on at City Finals she will be a top 3 finisher and definitely a candidate for breaking 19 mintues.

Palisade’s Mollie Wittenberg is finishing her 1st season of running and what a season it’s been! Because she’s so new there’s not a lot of history to go on but one thing we know about Pierce is that there’s a steep learning curve which means newer runners tend to show dramatic improvements. Mollie’s run the Pierce course 2 times including her Prelim performance that was probably a less than optimal effort. We’re predicting a sub-19 performance at City Finals and a top 5 finish.

Finally there’s Garfield’s sisters, freshman Kelia and sophomore Sophia Naranjo-Champion. Sophia has been the front-runner for most of the year but Kelia posted a 19:30.7 at Prelims in her first race at Pierce to lead the Garfield girls to a 2nd place finish in their heat at Prelims. The potential of both of these girls is unknown and unlimited but we predict at least one of them will break 19 minutes and place in the top 5 at City Finals.

Other notable runners in Division 1 . . .

Sofia Abrego (Granada Hills) looks to be ready to run after recovering from injuries that have hampered her for the better part of a year. Competing in her first race since Woodbridge (she started League Finals but did not finish) there’s no expectations here just excitement that one of the best runners in LA City history is able to compete again.

Amelie Missig (Taft) is another top LA City runner that has been out for most of the season due to injuries but looks to be ready to compete this Saturday. She ran a competent Prelim’s race (20:45.7) that is well off her Pierce PR of 18:44.5 which she ran 2019. Her 2019 time would place her in a very good position to win the individual City title this year but with the limited training she’s setting her expectations on an individual State qualification.

Vivian Meraz (Kennedy) was one of our Pre-Season Top-10 individual selections based on her 2019 XC season (19:48.9-City Finals) but has been non-existent this year. She had an early race in September that was unexceptional and than nothing until the prelims. We’re assuming injuries were at play but her time at Prelims (20:44.0) indicates she’s back and ranks her 11th in Division 1. We’re guessing there’s a ton of upside potential that has yet to be unleashed and predicting a sub-20 minute performance at City Finals as well as state qualification.