PRESEASON PICKS - Fall ‘21
The following rankings reflect our best guess about where teams and individuals will land on November 27th, 2021 at the LA City Cross Country Championships. Click on the text below either of the tables to see the full report covering all of the divisions. Refer to the end of this section for details on how we determined our picks.
DIVISION 1 BOYS
The usual suspects will compete for the boys division 1 City title with Valley teams dominating the top spots. But an interloper has the chance to steal the day! Younger runners will play prominent roles in the City Final with a sophomore picked as individual City champion for the first time in 25 years. Read on for the details.
Click on the link below for the full report on ALL divisions or continue below for details on Division 1.
FULL REPORT BOYS RANKINGS
#1 Palisades Charter
Palisades talented distance team at City Track Championships (l-r) Lucas Schriver (graduated), Jose Sevilla & Max Fields
Palisades Charter is the clear favorite in the Division 1 race with top returning runners Noah Wexler, Alec Schmidt, Jeremy Santiago, and Jose Sevilla. Along with stand-out sophomore Max Fields this team has a top 5 that is unmatched in City. But they don’t have a lot of depth and they’ll need Wexler to continue to improve and Schmidt and Sevilla to show better consistency. If they hit on all cylinders they have the ability to place 5 runners in the top 10 at City Finals; all under 16 minutes. Something only Belmont has ever accomplished.
Max Fields is our pick for the individual City Championship. The last time a sophomore won City was back in 1997 (Belmont’s Humberto Vargas) so we’re going against the odds on this one but Fields is supremely talented, has an incredible work ethic, trains thoughtfully, and is a fierce competitor. Sound like a champion to us!.
Granada & ECR Battle for State Bid
El Camino Real and Granada Hills will battle it out for the runner-up spot in Division I and the chance to go to state. Based on recent head-to-head competitions between the two teams the nod goes to ECR, but just barely. In the West Valley Preview Meet in August Granada clawed its way back in the last mile to come within 3 points of ECR in combined results.
ECR runners Austin Ledgerwood, Mateo Glass (4035), Evan Sinnott (4038), Max Liberman and Isaac Torres lead out the varsity race at last week’s West Valley Preview meet.
#2 El Camino Real
Seniors Austin Ledgerwood and Max Liberman lead the ECR varsity team. Both ran well at the West Valley Preview meet taking 2nd and 3rd place, respectively. Looking towards the City championships ECR will need Isaac Torres and Evan Sinnott to continue to improve. Sinnott, the 9th fastest returning runner from the ‘19 City Finals, is coming off an injury from earlier in the year and should be an important contributor later in the season. Jonah Gensler had a good showing in the Preview JV race and should get a shot to run varsity. The teams’ fortunes may rest with their talented sophomore, Mateo Glass, who will factor decisively in the post season.
Juan Alcala (4061) and Austin Ledgerwood (ECR) lead the boys Varsity race at the West Valley Preview meet at Pierce College on August 26th. James Lopez (4019) of Cleveland, who won this race in 16:53.3, is close behind.
#3 Granada Hills
Granada Hills’ Ryan Mittelstadt (4101) and ECR’s Jonah Gensler (4050) push up Chalk Hill at the 2-mile mark in the boys JV race at the West Valley Preview meet. Mittelstadt won the race in a time of 18:36.4.
Pablo Abrego and Juan Alcala have shared top-runner honors at Granada in their first 2 meets and Reece Robles hasn’t been far behind. Along with their rapidly improving sophomore Alexander Mendoza they have a solid top 4. Several runners could fill their #5 spot including Finley Hanson, Michael Ward, or Ryan Mittelstadt and their depth here is what may give Granada the advantage over ECR. Whoever it is they’ll need their 5th boy under 17 minutes at Pierce to help Granada secure their State bid.
Stay tuned, this one will likely change several times before we get to November 27th.
#4 Cleveland
Cleveland’s James Lopez makes a decisive move on the 2nd loop through the switchbacks to take the lead in the West Valley Preview Meet on Thursday, August 19th. He went on to win the race in 16:53.3.
Cleveland Ascending
Cleveland could be the spoiler in the 2021 Division 1 City race. The team is led by senior James Lopez who already has 2 league victories this season and will vie for the individual City championship in November. The Cavaliers lost Jesse Kesling this spring to early graduation but senior Harrison Nguyen and sophomore Joseph Vargas have shown big improvements and should factor in the post season. Cleveland’s team continues to get better each year under Coach Eddie Vasquez but they’ll need a #4 and #5 that can break 17 minutes at Pierce to contend with ECR and Granada.
San Pedro & Marshall Rebuild
The other 2 traditional powerhouses in Division 1, Marshall and San Pedro, should make a play for a top 5 position. Each team only has a single returning varsity runner from their outstanding ‘19 teams but each of these schools have stellar XC programs so they will be contenders. There have been big changes in both programs, too.
#5 Marshall
Marshall has a new head coach, Rick Eller, who will be replacing retiring Coach Charles Mack. Eller has been working with the Marshall XC program for the past 10 years so there won’t be much disruption with this change. Finlay Robertson should be the Barristers’ top runner but senior Anton Hense is running well and may challenge for Marshall’s top spot. Panos Papadeas fills out their top 3 but they’ll need improvements across the board to make any serious challenge to the top 2 spots in division 1.
Luis Sandoval, the only returning member from San Pedro’s ‘19 City Championship team, runs a tune-up race at the Laguna Hills Invitational on September 11th.
San Pedro also has a new head coach, Jeff Atkinson, who brings world-class credentials (literally) to the Pirates running program. He’ll have at least one returning varsity runner from the ‘19 championship team in Luis Sandoval and Daniel Ruiz has made fine improvements. It looks like Finley Kircher, one of the top sophomores from 2019, will not be returning. We’ll get the first look at the ‘21 San Pedro XC team at the Laguna Hills Invitational on September 11th and Woodbridge on September 18th.
DIVISION 1 GIRLS
No surprises in the top girls top team in Division 1 but the race for 2nd is going to be a wild one. Four teams have a legitimate chance to make the trip to State and the margins are extremely narrow. At the end of the day (or season) the team that can deliver the best 4th and 5th runner on November 27th is going to Fresno. Read on for the details . . .
Click on the link below for the full report on ALL divisions or continue below for details on Division 1.
Full Report - Girls Ranking
Girls D1 - Granada to ‘4PEAT’
Granada Hill’s varsity team poses for a quick picture just prior to the start of their race at the West Valley Preview Meet on August 19th. Granada won the race in convincing fashion sweeping 1st - 7th places. l-r Meztli Velazquez (4058), Sofia Abrego (4053), Jocelyn Pacheco (4056), Fiona Le (4055), Zaida Velazquez (4059), Naima Salazar (4057), and Isabel Castagnola (4054).
#1 Granada Hills
Granada Hills has a formidable Varsity Girls team and if results from the West Valley Preview Meet this past month are any indication this could be their best team yet. Led by 2-time City champion Sofia Abrego they have 5 runners ranked on our top-10 list, 2 who have run sub-20 minutes on Pierce. Jocelyn Pacheco and Isabel Castagnola continue to improve and along with stand-out Naima Salazar form the core of the Highlander’s varsity team. Add Freshman Meztli Velazquez who’s had an auspicious first season so far and this team looks hard to beat. Arden Keeton, a stand-out freshman in this spring’s track season has transferred to Golden Valley.
Palisades,ECR & Cleveland Compete for State
#2. Palisades Charter
Palisades’ depth, solid summer training, and strong feeder-school program shores up areas in the Pali XC running program that may be weaknesses across most other teams, post-COVID. For these reasons we’ve picked the Dolphins as runner-up to Granada in what should be a tight contest with Taft, ECR, and Cleveland.
Palisades had a quality frosh-soph team back in 2019 that included Layla Adeli, Sydney Suy, Scarlett Klein and Julia Musumeci. These girls are all back this year and should be in good form coming off a summer that included their annual Mammoth camp in July. Sophomores Kyra Morris and Gabriella Smith were the top freshman this past spring and will help out the depth chart. The ‘ace-in-the-hole’ for Palisades is their Revere middle school running program. This is the same program that delivered Palisade’s stand-outs Miranda Shriver (City Champ ‘17), Sarah Bentley (City runner-up ‘19), and Marissa Williams (City Champ ‘12-’14, and course record holder). In a year when most teams are struggling to fill out their freshman and sophomore rosters a few surprises from Revere could be the deciding factor.
Taft’s freshman Kayla Tjenalooi (3880) leads out the combined Frosh-Sop/JV race at the West Valley #1 Cluster meet on September 2nd. Taft has an excellent girls team that may surprise in November.
#3 TAFT
Taft may be the surprise team of the season. New head coach Mario Castillo’s 9th and 10th graders showed impressively at the West Valley Preview meet with Lia Medvoi and Kayla Tjenalooi going 1-2 in the Frosh-Soph race followed by Taaly Schreier in 4th. Once Amelie Missig returns, and if they can get some continued improvements in their 4th and 5th girls, they are contenders for a top 2 varsity finish at City finals; something they haven’t done since 1995.
ECR’s top runner senior Leta Squier should help the Royals in their bid for State qualification.
#4 El Camino Real
Like Palisades, ECR had an impressive group of freshman and sophomore girls from the ‘19 XC season. Unfortunately three of these runners are not competing this year. But ECR will get a big boost from Senior Leta Squier, a transfer from Long Beach, who’s been ECR’s top runner this year. Along with senior Makenna McArthur and junior Rebecca Ascensio the Royals have a solid top three but they’ll need a few of the remaining standout freshman from ‘19 to return to form to get past Palisades.
Senior Makenna McArthur’s consistency is paying off as she is ECR’s #2 varsity.
Rebecca Ascencio was part of ECR’s stand-out fresh-soph team in 2019 and is currently ECR’s #3 varsity runner.
#5 Cleveland
Sophia Richardson is a relative newcomer to City XC but has quickly moved to the top of Cleveland’s varsity team.
Cleveland will be looking for a shot at State this year for the first time since City began competing in the meet back in 1988. Led by junior Sophia Richardson the team ran well at the West Valley Preview meet edging out ECR for 2nd place. Monserrat Sanchez is showing big improvements from 2019 and relative newcomer Anisha Khan had an impressive debut on Pierce at the Preview meet. Like most of the top division 1 teams, Cleveland will need to shore up their 4th- 7th runners to make a run at the runner-up spot at City finals.
Cleveland’s varsity team prepares for the West Valley Cluster #1 meet on September 2nd where the Cavaliers edged out ECR for 2nd place.
(-r) Monserrat Sanchez (3761), Kayla Lopez (3759), Anish Khan (3758), Mia Sweeny (3762), Livia Fortier (3757), Alondra Alonzo (3756), Sophia RIchardson (3760)
The Other Teams
Garfield and Kennedy both have some firepower up front - Garfield with Crystal Hernandez and Jacqueline Ramirez, Kennedy with Frieda Castillo and Vivian Meraz - but will need big improvements from their 3rd - 5th runners to crack the top 5 at City Finals. Garfield had a strong team returning from ‘2019 but we haven’t seen any of the girls run since. They have a newer runner Sophia Narnajo-Champion (the name says it all!) who showed promise this past spring.
Girls Division 1 Individuals
Sofia Abrego is going for her 3rd individual City championship and if successful would equal what only Emmaline Hartell and Marissa Williams have accomplished. She’s still working her way into top form from an ankle injury during the ‘20 track season but expect her to be ready on November 27th. Her performance at Cool Breeze last week put her on top of LA City’s leader board.
Taft’s Amelie Missig is the 2nd fastest returning runner from the ‘19 City finals and will be looking to improve on her 4th-place finish. She’s been sidelined with an IT issue this season but is scheduled to run in her first race at Woodbridge this Saturday.
Any one of Granada’s top 3 girls could take individual honors at City as well. Jocelyn Pacheco, Isabel Castagnola, and Meztli Velazquez have all had outstanding starts to this XC season and on the right day have the potential to win the big race.
Three of City’s top division 1 distance runners compete in the 1,600m Championship race at the City Track & Field Finals on June 23rd
Picking the Winners…
Picking LA’s XC Champions four months in advance of the City Finals is a challenge in a normal year. Add COVID into the mix and the ‘21 XC season is a particularly daunting endeavor. That said, here was our approach . . .
The primary input for determining these rankings are the 2019 City XC Final results at Pierce (Varsity) and LA State Historical Park (Frosh/Soph). Since these race times are 21 months old, and many of these runners have since graduated, we shored up the numbers with PB’s in the 3,200m and 1,600m from the ‘21 track season. We also had the benefit of an early West Valley XC meet this month to help hone our picks. Next was the hard part. Attempting to account for the anomalies: new runners to LA City, runners that have shown exceptional improvement or deterioration in performance over the last 21 months, and runners that have decided to quit their team’s running program altogether.
Bruce Thomson
LA City’s ‘O.G.’
NOTE: These ‘Preseason Picks’ are not endorsed, sanctioned, reviewed or otherwise recognized by the CIF LA City Section or it affiliates.